03 Jul Forecasting Time Series Of Real GDP Project Assignment
Question Description
Hi, I got some feedback from my professor about the nonseasonal project you help me last time. There are some points that I need you to improve by following advises.
1.You should read carefully the project guidelines and follow them for your milestones too.
2.All figures should have numbered captions and the caption should explain what is in the figure. You need to refer to those plots in your writing. Otherwise, the writing is impossible to follow. Make it easy for the reader.
3.You are using other R time series tools. I have no objection to that, but you need to explain and document things better in your final report.
4.The first ACF and PACF in your milestone are almost certainly after differencing, but there is no mention of that.
5.The fourth plot is “standardized residuals” but there is no indication of the model that was fit.
6.At one point you say “So it is ARIMA process with d=0 because we do not need differencing to make it stationary.” Looking at the plot of the time series in the first figure, I am absolutely sure that your statement is wrong.
7.I do not understand “series x” and “series Y.”
8.The top figure on page 5 looks similar to an stl plot. If this plot has some value, you need to explain it. The “seasonal” part of this plot is misleading because your time series is supposed to be nonseasonal (I assume that you checked that). Look at the magnitude of the y-axis scale, relative to the others.
9.I do not understand the bottom plot. Please give a reference to something describing the background of this plot.
10.I am not familiar with the ‘rolling scheme forecast.” You need to give a reference for that too.
11.I see quite a few typos. Careful proof-reading by all team members should be done.
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