11 Nov Chapter 8 Case Problem 2: Forecasting Lost Sales.?? If using Excel or Minitab for your calculations, charts, and graphs, please copy and paste your work into the Word document.? Do not
- In a single Word document, Chapter 8 Case Problem 2: “Forecasting Lost Sales.” If using Excel or Minitab for your calculations, charts, and graphs, please copy and paste your work into the Word document. Do not attach Excel or Minitab as separate documents
- response should be a minimum of 2-3 pages . The font is Times New Roman, font size should be 12, and the paragraphs are single-spaced. There should be a minimum of one reference supporting your observations. Citations are to follow APA 7.0. double space.
– no plagiarism, need plagiarism report
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Chapter 8: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting: Case Problem 2 Forecasting Lost Sales Book Title: Business Analytics Printed By: Jigar Jitendrak Patel ([email protected]) © 2021 Cengage Learning, Cengage Learning
Chapter Review
Case Problem 2 Forecasting Lost Sales
The Carlson Department Store suffered heavy damage when a hurricane struck on August 31. The store was closed for four months (September through December), and Carlson is now involved in a dispute with its insurance company about the amount of lost sales during the time the store was closed. Two key issues must be resolved: (1) the amount of sales Carlson would have made if the hurricane had not struck and (2) whether Carlson is entitled to any compensation for excess sales due to increased business activity after the storm. More than $8 billion in federal disaster relief and insurance money came into the county, resulting in increased sales at department stores and numerous other businesses.
The following two tables give (1) Carlson’s sales data for the 48 months preceding the storm and (2) the total sales for the 48 months preceding the storm for all department stores in the county, as well as the total sales in the county for the four months the Carlson Department Store was closed. Carlson’s managers asked you to analyze these data and develop estimates of the lost sales at the Carlson Department Store for the months of September through December. They also asked you to determine whether a case can be made for excess storm-related sales during the same period. If such a case can be made, Carlson is entitled to compensation for excess sales it would have earned in addition to ordinary sales.
Managerial Report
Prepare a report for the managers of the Carlson Department Store that summarizes your findings, forecasts, and recommendations. Include the following:
1. An estimate of sales for Carlson Department Store had there been no hurricane.
2. An estimate of countywide department store sales had there been no hurricane.
3. An estimate of lost sales for the Carlson Department Store for September through December.
In addition, use the countywide actual department stores sales for September through December and the estimate in part (2) to make a case for or against excess stormrelated
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sales.
Sales for Carlson Department Store ($ Millions)
Month Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
January 1.45 2.31 2.31 2.56
February 1.80 1.89 1.99 2.28
March 2.03 2.02 2.42 2.69
April 1.99 2.23 2.45 2.48
May 2.32 2.39 2.57 2.73
June 2.20 2.14 2.42 2.37
July 2.13 2.27 2.40 2.31
August 2.43 2.21 2.50 2.23
September 1.71 1.90 1.89 2.09
October 1.90 2.13 2.29 2.54
November 2.74 2.56 2.83 2.97
December 4.20 4.16 4.04 4.35
Table 17.27
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Department Store Sales for the County ($ Millions)
Month Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
January 46.80 46.80 43.80 48.00
February 48.00 48.60 45.60 51.60
March 60.00 59.40 57.60 57.60
April 57.60 58.20 53.40 58.20
May 61.80 60.60 56.40 60.00
June 58.20 55.20 52.80 57.00
July 56.40 51.00 54.00 57.60
August 63.00 58.80 60.60 61.80
September 55.80 57.60 49.80 47.40 69.00
October 56.40 53.40 54.60 54.60 75.00
November 71.40 71.40 65.40 67.80 85.20
December 117.60 114.00 102.00 100.20 121.80
Chapter 8: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting: Case Problem 2 Forecasting Lost Sales Book Title: Business Analytics Printed By: Jigar Jitendrak Patel ([email protected]) © 2021 Cengage Learning, Cengage Learning
© 2022 Cengage Learning Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this work may by reproduced or used in any form or by any means – graphic, electronic, or mechanical, or in any other manner – without the written permission of the copyright holder.
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