04 Feb According to Nike’s annual report, write an analysis of five portals, and the definitions of five portals are included in the article. 1. Competitive Rivalry. 2. Supplier Power. 3.
https://investors.nike.com/investors/news-events-and-reports/default.aspx?toggle=news
According to Nike's annual report, write an analysis of five portals, and the definitions of five portals are included in the article.
1. Competitive Rivalry.
2. Supplier Power.
3. Buyer Power.
4. Threat of Substitution.
5. Threat of New Entry.
4-5 pages
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 1 of 22
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Nike Inc Class B NKE QQQ 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Moat TrendTM Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
129.06 USD 2 Feb 2023
134.00 USD 22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC
0.96 200.80 USD Bil 2 Feb 2023
Wide Stable Medium Exemplary ;;;;; 1 Feb 2023 06:00, UTC
Price vs. Fair Value
0
50
100
150
200
Fair Value: 134.00 22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC
Last Close: 129.06 Over Valued Under Valued
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD
0.99 0.96 1.32 1.30 0.87 0.96 Price/Fair Value
19.84 37.87 40.64 18.61 -29.04 10.30 Total Return %
Morningstar Rating
Total Return % as of 2 Feb 2023. Last Close as of 2 Feb 2023. Fair Value as of 22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC.
Contents
Business Description
Business Strategy & Outlook (22 Dec 2022)
Bulls Say / Bears Say (22 Dec 2022)
Economic Moat (21 Dec 2022)
Fair Value and Profit Drivers (21 Dec 2022)
Risk and Uncertainty (21 Dec 2022)
Capital Allocation (21 Dec 2022)
Analyst Notes Archive
Financials
Appendix
Research Methodology for Valuing Companies
Important Disclosure
The conduct of Morningstar’s analysts is governed by Code of Ethics/Code of
Conduct Policy, Personal Security Trading Policy (or an equivalent of), and
Investment Research Policy. For information regarding conflicts of interest, please
visit: http://global.morningstar.com/equitydisclosures.
The primary analyst covering this company does not own its stock.
1The ESG Risk Rating Assessment is a representation of Sustainalytics’ ESG Risk
Rating.
Wide-Moat Nike’s Powerful Brand and Digital Strategy
Allowing It to Overcome Market Turmoil
Business Strategy & Outlook David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst, 22 Dec 2022
We view Nike as the leader of the athletic apparel market and believe it will overcome current
challenges despite near-term inventory and economic issues. Our wide moat rating on the company is
based on its intangible brand asset, as we believe it will maintain premium pricing and generate
economic profits for at least 20 years. Nike, the largest athletic footwear brand in all major categories
and in all major markets, dominates categories like running and basketball with popular shoe styles.
While it does face significant competition, we believe it has proven over a long period that it can
maintain share and pricing.
We think Nike’s strategies allow it to maintain its leadership position. Over the last few years, Nike has
invested in its direct-to-consumer network while cutting many wholesale accounts. In North America
and elsewhere, the firm has reduced its exposure to undifferentiated retailers while increasing its
connections with a small number of retailers that bring the Nike brand closer to consumers, carry a full
range of products, and allow it to control the brand message. Nike’s consumer plan is led by its Triple
Double strategy to double innovation, speed, and direct connections to consumers. Triple Double
includes cutting product creation times in half, increasing membership in Nike’s mobile apps, and
improving the selection of key franchises while reducing its styles by 25%. We think these strategies
will allow Nike to hold share and pricing. © Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 2 of 22
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Nike Inc Class B NKE QQQ 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Moat TrendTM Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
129.06 USD 2 Feb 2023
134.00 USD 22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC
0.96 200.80 USD Bil 2 Feb 2023
Wide Stable Medium Exemplary ;;;;; 1 Feb 2023 06:00, UTC
Although its recent results in China have been inconsistent due to supply issues, virus-related
restrictions, and a political controversy, we still believe Nike has a great opportunity for growth there
and in other emerging markets. The firm experienced double-digit annual sales growth in six of the past
eight years in greater China and, fueled by high government investment in athletics, we think it will do
so again after the current difficulties have passed. Moreover, with worldwide distribution and huge e-
commerce platform that exceeded $10 billion in fiscal 2022, Nike should benefit as more people in
China, Latin America, and other developing regions move into the middle class and gain broadband
access.
Bulls Say David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst, 22 Dec 2022
u Nike has a great opportunity in fast-growing markets like China. More than 70% of Nike’s growth over
the next five years may come from outside North America.
u Nike’s Triple Double strategy of increased innovation, direct-to-consumer sales, and speed may improve
margins and share. Membership growth in its digital channel has exceeded expectations.
u We anticipate Nike’s gross margins will rise by about 30 basis points per year after fiscal 2024 through
automation, e-commerce, and higher prices. Nike is pulling back from undifferentiated retailers to
increase full-priced sales.
Bears Say David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst, 22 Dec 2022
u As a worldwide business, Nike is exposed to global issues like the war in Ukraine, shipping delays,
currency volatility, and high input costs. Nike's long-term results could be affected if these problems
persist.
u Nike has recently suffered poor results in China as rising nationalism has boosted native brands and
virus-related restrictions have disrupted operations. Nike cannot afford to lose significant share in this
critical sportswear market.
u Nike has struggled to manage its inventory, requiring markdowns to clear excess product that have
negatively impacted margins.
Economic Moat David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst, 21 Dec 2022
We assign a wide moat rating to Nike based on its intangible brand asset. Nike is the largest athletic
apparel company in the world, with nearly $47 billion in revenue in fiscal 2022. Its revenue has
increased in nine of the past 10 years, with the pandemic-affected fiscal 2021 as the sole exception.
Nike produces apparel and footwear for professional and amateur athletes, sports equipment, and
sports-inspired fashion for both athletes and nonathletes alike. As evidence of its competitive edge, the
firm's adjusted returns on invested capital, including goodwill, have averaged 37% over the past
decade. We forecast that the company's average annual adjusted ROICs, including goodwill, will exceed
its weighted average cost of capital over the next 20 years, as required for our wide moat rating. We
Sector Industry
t Consumer Cyclical Footwear & Accessories
Business Description
Nike is the largest athletic footwear and apparel brand
in the world. It designs, develops, and markets athletic
apparel, footwear, equipment, and accessories in six
major categories: running, basketball, football (soccer),
training, sportswear, and Jordan. Footwear generates
about two thirds of its sales. Nike’s brands include Nike,
Jordan, and Converse (casual footwear). Nike sells
products worldwide and outsources its production to
more than 300 factories in more than 30 countries. Nike
was founded in 1964 and is based in Beaverton, Oregon.
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 3 of 22
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Nike Inc Class B NKE QQQ 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Moat TrendTM Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
129.06 USD 2 Feb 2023
134.00 USD 22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC
0.96 200.80 USD Bil 2 Feb 2023
Wide Stable Medium Exemplary ;;;;; 1 Feb 2023 06:00, UTC
Competitors Nike Inc Class B NKE Under Armour Inc A UAA VF Corp VFC Hanesbrands Inc HBI
Fair Value 134.00 Uncertainty : Medium
Last Close 129.06
Fair Value 15.50 Uncertainty : High
Last Close 12.78
Fair Value 61.00 Uncertainty : Medium
Last Close 31.14
Fair Value 22.00 Uncertainty : High
Last Close 6.28
Economic Moat Wide None Narrow Narrow
Moat Trend Stable Stable Stable Stable
Currency USD USD USD USD
Fair Value 134.00 22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC 15.50 28 Nov 2022 17:04, UTC 61.00 5 Dec 2022 20:18, UTC 22.00 16 Nov 2022 03:44, UTC
1-Star Price 180.90 24.03 82.35 34.10
5-Star Price 93.80 9.30 42.70 13.20
Assessment Fairly Valued 2 Feb 2023 Under Valued 1 Feb 2023 Significantly
Undervalued
1 Feb
2023
Significantly
Undervalued
1 Feb
2023
Morningstar Rating QQQ1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC QQQQ1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC QQQQQ1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC QQQQQ1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Analyst David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst David Swartz, Senior Equity Analyst
Capital Allocation Exemplary Standard Exemplary Standard
Price/Fair Value 0.96 0.82 0.51 0.29
Price/Sales 4.20 1.05 1.04 0.47
Price/Book 13.15 3.18 3.98 4.50
Price/Earning 36.58 27.19 29.30 8.62
Dividend Yield 0.97% — 6.35% 6.89%
Market Cap 200.80 Bil 5.41 Bil 12.29 Bil 3.04 Bil
52-Week Range 82.22—149.46 6.38—20.65 25.05—66.96 5.65—16.75
Investment Style Large Growth Small Core Mid Value Small Value
estimate Nike's weighted average cost of capital at 9% and expect its annual adjusted ROICs, including
goodwill, to average 63% over the next decade. We believe Nike has been the preferred sportswear
brand in the world since the 1980s and that it will remain so for many years.
Nike achieves premium pricing on many products, supporting our view of its brand power. Its
performance athletic shoes are the most expensive on the market. At footlocker.com, for example, Nike
produces most of the styles of men's performance basketball shoes that cost $170 or more per pair (as
of December 2022). Some fashionable Nike shoes retail for prices associated with luxury footwear
brands. For example, luxury retailer farfetch.com lists dozens of styles of Nike sneakers at prices above
$1,000 per pair. Moreover, as evidence of Nike's enduring popularity, older and limited-edition shoes are
regularly sold in resale markets for more than $10,000 per pair.
We believe Nike's wide moat is supported by its worldwide reach. The company ships products to more
than 190 countries, operates more than 1,000 stores (two thirds outside of the U.S.), and has another © Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 4 of 22
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Nike Inc Class B NKE QQQ 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Moat TrendTM Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
129.06 USD 2 Feb 2023
134.00 USD 22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC
0.96 200.80 USD Bil 2 Feb 2023
Wide Stable Medium Exemplary ;;;;; 1 Feb 2023 06:00, UTC
6,000 or so branded stores that are operated by franchisees. We estimate Nike's annual revenue to be
about double that of the world's second-largest sportswear firm, narrow-moat Adidas. Nike produced
$29 billion in fiscal 2022 footwear sales, more than the combined footwear sales of Adidas, Puma, and
no-moat Under Armour. It has market-leading share in footwear in all markets and major categories and
ships more than 800 million pairs of shoes per year. It is also the leader in athletic apparel, producing
$13.6 billion in apparel sales in fiscal 2022. Although Nike is an American brand, 59% of fiscal 2022
sales of the brand came from outside of North America. We believe that no athletic apparel company
will be able to approach its global market share in at least the next 20 years, supporting our view that it
has a wide moat.
Nike's brand is enhanced by its large e-commerce business in the U.S. and other countries. We estimate
that Nike generated more than $10 billion in e-commerce sales from its digital marketplaces in fiscal
2022, having grown from about $1.5 billion in fiscal 2015. Nike expects digital sales from its own
channels to increase to 40% of its sales in fiscal 2025, up from about 24% in fiscal 2022. We think this
growth is achievable as more consumers in developing markets (such as China, India, and Latin
America) move into the middle class and gain access to broadband services. Nike is investing heavily in
its digital services. Its apps, known as NikePlus, have about 160 million members. Its Training Club and
Run Club apps are the largest apps in their fields in the U.S. and Europe and its SNKRS app for hard-
core shoe collectors reportedly has several million members. Nike produces limited-edition products that
are exclusive to members of NikePlus. For example, more than one third of Cristiano Ronaldo's Mercurial
soccer cleats are available only on nike.com and its apps. Many Nike-sponsored athletes, including
Ronaldo, have tens and even hundreds of millions of social media followers. Nike uses their fame to
promote its products to a huge audience at relatively low cost. The firm supports its e-commerce with
some innovative digital products, such as NikeConnect, a service that allows people to take a picture of
a Nike product and identify it. This is a useful service, as Nike estimates there are 5 billion individual
Nike products in the world. We believe Nike's large digital community creates goodwill among its best
customers and promotes the brand. While other athletic apparel companies have e-commerce, none of
them have the reach of Nike. We think its apps support our wide moat rating.
Nike sponsors many of the world's most popular athletes and teams in virtually all major sports. Athletes
sponsored by Nike include Cristiano Ronaldo (football/soccer), LeBron James (basketball), Kevin Durant
(basketball), Mike Trout (baseball), Giancarlo Stanton (baseball), Rafael Nadal (tennis), Serena Williams
(tennis), Alex Morgan (soccer), Michael Jordan, and many track and field athletes. Teams and leagues
sponsored by Nike include the NFL, the NBA, many U.S. and international college teams, many national
soccer leagues, and the national soccer teams of numerous nations, including Brazil, France, and
England. In 2020, for the first time, Nike's swoosh logo appeared on the front of every Major League
Baseball uniform. Nike is the sponsor of choice for athletes and teams due to its status as the world's
© Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 5 of 22
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Nike Inc Class B NKE QQQ 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Moat TrendTM Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
129.06 USD 2 Feb 2023
134.00 USD 22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC
0.96 200.80 USD Bil 2 Feb 2023
Wide Stable Medium Exemplary ;;;;; 1 Feb 2023 06:00, UTC
largest apparel brand and the tremendous success of its nearly 40-year relationship with Michael
Jordan. LeBron James famously turned down more money from Reebok to sign with Nike in 2003,
ultimately dooming Reebok to irrelevance in basketball shoes. Whether sponsored or not, athletes all
over the world wear Nike apparel while competing. For example, its Mercurial line of soccer cleats is the
most popular brand in England's Premier League. Also, about three fourths of the players in the NBA
wear Nike or Jordan shoes. We expect Nike's powerful brand will continue to allow it to sign the key
endorsement deals that will keep it on top.
Nike's brands have proven staying power, supporting our view that it can continue to earn economic
profits for at least the next 20 years. Michael Jordan signed with Nike in 1984 and retired from
basketball in 2003. Many millennials are not even old enough to have seen him play. Yet, Nike's upscale
Jordan brand produced $5.1 billion in (wholesale-equivalent) sales in fiscal 2022. While Jordan is Nike's
biggest star, James' shoes have been big sellers for Nike since he was a teenager. He signed a new
contract with Nike in 2015 that will reportedly pay him $30 million per year until 2048 (when he
celebrates his 64th birthday). Nike, which ships about twice as many pairs of shoes worldwide as
Adidas, has developed franchises with unusual longevity. We think Nike's key brands support our view
that it has a wide moat based on its brand intangible asset.
We believe Nike's innovations contribute to its brand and support our wide-moat view. Nike has been
known for its innovative products ever since it introduced running shoes with pressurized air in their
soles in the 1980s. Nike frequently releases new styles of running shoes. Recent editions to its large
family of shoes include Epic React (foam cushioning), VaporMax (new style of Air), and shoes with
ZoomX technology. Nike claims the ZoomX substance was developed for the aerospace industry and
returns as much as 85% of energy to the runner. While it may be hard to prove this claim, Nike's
dominance in running shoes is clear as the category produces about $4 billion in sales for the company.
Most of the world's leading track and field athletes wear Nike shoes. Its innovations allow it to maintain
premium pricing. Many Nike running shoes, such as the best-selling Air Zoom Pegasus, sell at prices
over $100 per pair. Nike Air Vapor Max, which sell for about $200 per pair at Foot Locker and other
stores, reportedly became the best-selling running shoe above $150 per pair within months of its launch
in 2017. We believe Nike is the leader in sports performance technology, providing a persistent
competitive edge.
We do not believe Nike has a moat based on a cost advantage. While Nike may have some cost
advantage over competitors in sponsorships due to its status as the premier sportswear brand, we don't
view this as significant or maintainable. Moreover, while endorsements are great for brand building,
they are difficult to quantify in terms of profit margins. While Nike's low double-digit operating margins
are very good, it is difficult to know if endorsements play a major role. It is possible that the firm simply
has expense leverage due its size. Nike has limited advantage in product costs as virtually all its © Morningstar 2023. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 2 Feb 2023 22:18, UTC | Reporting Currency: USD | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. Page 6 of 22
ß ®
Nike Inc Class B NKE QQQ 1 Feb 2023 22:24, UTC
Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/FVE Market Cap Economic MoatTM Moat TrendTM Uncertainty Capital Allocation ESG Risk Rating Assessment1
129.06 USD 2 Feb 2023
134.00 USD 22 Dec 2022 01:15, UTC
0.96 200.80 USD Bil 2 Feb 2023
Wide Stable Medium Exemplary ;;;;; 1 Feb 2023 06:00, UTC
production is outsourced. Narrow-moat Shenzhou International, for example, is one of Nike's largest
suppliers but also produces apparel for narrow-moat Adidas, Puma, and others.
We do not believe Nike has a moat based on anything aside from its brand intangible asset. We do not
think it has a moat based on efficient scale. While Nike's financial resources and relationships with
suppliers likely allow for production investment unavailable to others in the short term, any advantage
in this area is likely to be transitory. Competitors can probably gain access to similar technologies.
Moreover, much of app
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