09 Jul ECON 5041 Annual Data Analysis on Per Capita Income in New York
ECON 504 Spring 2019 HW 6 (Due to Shi by 9:00 a.m on March 25, 2019) 1. For this exercise, use the annual data on per capita income (nominal) in the state of New York from the Bureau of Economic Analysis web site. Use the data for the period 1950-2016 for your analysis. a. Identify and estimate an ARMA model for per capita percentage income growth in New York. Use R. Explain the rationale behind the choice of your model. Include at least one other potential candidate model for your comparison. b. Use R to obtain and present point forecasts, and the standard errors of the forecasts (with forecast error uncertainty) for years 2017 and 2018 based on your chosen model. c. Obtain the following percentiles of the forecast density function for the forecast of the growth rate of per capita income for 2017: 5, 20, 30, 50, 70, 80, and 95. Present these percentiles in a tabular form. Do the following problem from your text book: Chapter 2: Exercise 5. Use R. Use the data file posted along with this homework. …
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