The Washington Post

PostEverything  PerspectiveL

The Hawaii alert was an

accident. The dread it

inspired wasn’t.

By By Alex WellersteinAlex Wellerstein   January 16January 16    Follow @wellerstein

Alex Wellerstein is a historian of nuclear weapons at the Alex Wellerstein is a historian of nuclear weapons at the Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology in Hoboken, N.J. He runs in Hoboken, N.J. He runs

the website the website Restricted Data: The Nuclear Secrecy BlogRestricted Data: The Nuclear Secrecy Blog..

At 8:07 a.m. Saturday, the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency activated its civilian early warning system with At 8:07 a.m. Saturday, the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency activated its civilian early warning system with a messagea message

sent to cellphonessent to cellphones in the state: in the state:

“BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT INBOUND TO HAWAII. SEEK IMMEDIATE SHELTER. THIS IS NOT A DRILL.”“BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT INBOUND TO HAWAII. SEEK IMMEDIATE SHELTER. THIS IS NOT A DRILL.”

The one part of the message that was correct was that it was indeed not a drill. It was an accident. No missile was incoming, andThe one part of the message that was correct was that it was indeed not a drill. It was an accident. No missile was incoming, and

the warning was, according to the agency, the result of simple human error. As part of a routine test of readiness, a stafferthe warning was, according to the agency, the result of simple human error. As part of a routine test of readiness, a staffer

selected “live alert” rather than “test alert.” That was all that it took for panic and fear to spread. Hawaiian officials scrambled toselected “live alert” rather than “test alert.” That was all that it took for panic and fear to spread. Hawaiian officials scrambled to

tell the public that it was a false alarm, but it still took 38 minutes for the same system to broadcast a message of safety.tell the public that it was a false alarm, but it still took 38 minutes for the same system to broadcast a message of safety.

We live in a tense time. Former secretary of defense William J. Perry We live in a tense time. Former secretary of defense William J. Perry recently warned on Twitterrecently warned on Twitter that “we are at greater risk of that “we are at greater risk of

nuclear catastrophe now than we were during the Cold War,” and although experts and wonks can argue the point, we certainlynuclear catastrophe now than we were during the Cold War,” and although experts and wonks can argue the point, we certainly

have all the appearances of being in the grip of a “nuclear war scare” of the sort not yet seen since the Cold War. Sen. Lindsey O.have all the appearances of being in the grip of a “nuclear war scare” of the sort not yet seen since the Cold War. Sen. Lindsey O.

Graham (R-S.C.) Graham (R-S.C.) suggested recentlysuggested recently that there was a 30 percent chance of Washington using a “military option” against North that there was a 30 percent chance of Washington using a “military option” against North

Korea, and increased that to 70 percent if North Korea tested another nuclear weapon. While some in the TrumpKorea, and increased that to 70 percent if North Korea tested another nuclear weapon. While some in the Trump

administration, leaks suggest, favor a “administration, leaks suggest, favor a “bloody nose strikebloody nose strike” against the regime, Graham at least acknowledges that any attack” against the regime, Graham at least acknowledges that any attack

against North Korea would probably be an existential one to the regime: “There is no surgical strike option …. So if you ever useagainst North Korea would probably be an existential one to the regime: “There is no surgical strike option …. So if you ever use

the military option, it’s not to just neutralize their nuclear facilities — you’ve got to be willing to take the regime completelythe military option, it’s not to just neutralize their nuclear facilities — you’ve got to be willing to take the regime completely

down.” North Korea would surely suspect the same, and react to any attacks as an existential threat, the one scenario in whichdown.” North Korea would surely suspect the same, and react to any attacks as an existential threat, the one scenario in which

they could be readily assumed to use their nuclear arsenal against U.S. allies and/or American cities.they could be readily assumed to use their nuclear arsenal against U.S. allies and/or American cities.

How much of the war talk is a real reflection of internal administration thinking, how much of it is speculation, and how much isHow much of the war talk is a real reflection of internal administration thinking, how much of it is speculation, and how much is

a bluffa bluff? Not only is it hard to know from the outside, it may be impossible to know at all at this point. If the past tells us? Not only is it hard to know from the outside, it may be impossible to know at all at this point. If the past tells us

anything, it is that these decisions may not be made, certainly may not be finalized — may not be part of some grand strategy oranything, it is that these decisions may not be made, certainly may not be finalized — may not be part of some grand strategy or

plan. They rest on the judgment and determination of very small number of people, on the balance of rivalries andplan. They rest on the judgment and determination of very small number of people, on the balance of rivalries and

disagreements among Cabinet members, staffers and whoever might have President Trump’s ear at any given moment (evendisagreements among Cabinet members, staffers and whoever might have President Trump’s ear at any given moment (even

whoever he may be watchingwhoever he may be watching). In the case of nuclear weapons use, the authority to order an attack lies with a single person: ). In the case of nuclear weapons use, the authority to order an attack lies with a single person: thethe

president himselfpresident himself..

What does the Hawaii mishap have to do with this? It is, if we needed one, a powerful reminder that we live in a world whereWhat does the Hawaii mishap have to do with this? It is, if we needed one, a powerful reminder that we live in a world where

information and misinformation spreads like wildfire, where tensions run high and the systems to detect, warn and react are allinformation and misinformation spreads like wildfire, where tensions run high and the systems to detect, warn and react are all

immensely complex and rely on the participation of fallible human beings.immensely complex and rely on the participation of fallible human beings.

There are, of course, better and worse ways to design these systems. For instance, it was a surprise to learn that the differenceThere are, of course, better and worse ways to design these systems. For instance, it was a surprise to learn that the difference

between a test alert and an actual alert wasn’t better marked, and maybe more than one confirmation box could have popped upbetween a test alert and an actual alert wasn’t better marked, and maybe more than one confirmation box could have popped up

before “THIS IS NOT A TEST” was broadcast to a million people. Of course, in a world full of confirmation boxes screaming forbefore “THIS IS NOT A TEST” was broadcast to a million people. Of course, in a world full of confirmation boxes screaming for

attention, we have all become somewhat desensitized to them, but user-interface designers have surely come up with systemsattention, we have all become somewhat desensitized to them, but user-interface designers have surely come up with systems

that are less likely to be triggered accidentally.that are less likely to be triggered accidentally.

But if it’s not one thing, it’s another. As the sociologist Charles Perrow wrote decades ago in his aptly titled book “But if it’s not one thing, it’s another. As the sociologist Charles Perrow wrote decades ago in his aptly titled book “NormalNormal

AccidentsAccidents,” “trivial events in nontrivial systems” are unavoidable and should be expected. On Saturday, it was the click of a,” “trivial events in nontrivial systems” are unavoidable and should be expected. On Saturday, it was the click of a

wrong button. In the future, it might be a malfunctioning or hacked computer, a malicious internal operator, an erroneouswrong button. In the future, it might be a malfunctioning or hacked computer, a malicious internal operator, an erroneous

sensor — who knows? Perrow’s research found that accidents of an unexpected character, especially those that resulted fromsensor — who knows? Perrow’s research found that accidents of an unexpected character, especially those that resulted from

some kind of unlikely technical malfunction coupled with human error, happened on an alarmingly regular basis, no mattersome kind of unlikely technical malfunction coupled with human error, happened on an alarmingly regular basis, no matter

how much effort was put into quashing the bugs. Usually the damage done was local and reversible. But in some systems, suchhow much effort was put into quashing the bugs. Usually the damage done was local and reversible. But in some systems, such

as those involved with nuclear weapons, the consequences could be massive.as those involved with nuclear weapons, the consequences could be massive.

The Cold War was full of such computer and sensor malfunctions, both in the United States and the Soviet Union, which set offThe Cold War was full of such computer and sensor malfunctions, both in the United States and the Soviet Union, which set off

warnings that missiles were inbound. Those that came during times of reduced tensions were easily understood as probablewarnings that missiles were inbound. Those that came during times of reduced tensions were easily understood as probable

errors. Those that came during the times of fear and mistrust — such as the Cuban missile crisis or the errors. Those that came during the times of fear and mistrust — such as the Cuban missile crisis or the War Scare of 1983War Scare of 1983

— pushed the world perilously close to the nuclear brink.— pushed the world perilously close to the nuclear brink.

Some of the stories are so absurd as to be scarcely believable, if the documentation did not back them up. Scott Sagan, in hisSome of the stories are so absurd as to be scarcely believable, if the documentation did not back them up. Scott Sagan, in his

book “book “The Limits of SafetyThe Limits of Safety,” relates several, but here was the strangest: At a military base in Minnesota during the height of the,” relates several, but here was the strangest: At a military base in Minnesota during the height of the

Cuban missile crisis, a guard mistook a bear for a Soviet saboteur. He sounded the intruder alarm, which rang warning bells atCuban missile crisis, a guard mistook a bear for a Soviet saboteur. He sounded the intruder alarm, which rang warning bells at

other bases in the region. At Volk Airfield, however, the warning bell was erroneously wired, and instead a nuclear attackother bases in the region. At Volk Airfield, however, the warning bell was erroneously wired, and instead a nuclear attack

warning went off, causing nuclear-armed jets to scramble, searching for enemies. You can’t make this stuff up.warning went off, causing nuclear-armed jets to scramble, searching for enemies. You can’t make this stuff up.

One of the lessons that President John F. Kennedy and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev took away from the crisis as a whole isOne of the lessons that President John F. Kennedy and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev took away from the crisis as a whole is

that once tensions are high, even the supposed leaders are no longer in complete control. All it would take is one stray fighter,that once tensions are high, even the supposed leaders are no longer in complete control. All it would take is one stray fighter,

one malfunctioning system, one bad decision at a low level, one incorrectly communicated message, and hundreds of millionsone malfunctioning system, one bad decision at a low level, one incorrectly communicated message, and hundreds of millions

would die. As it was, there were would die. As it was, there were manymany false alarms during the Cuban missile crisis alone — including one in which an American false alarms during the Cuban missile crisis alone — including one in which an American

warning system erroneously detected an incoming missile from Cuba! It was not the robustness of our system, or even thewarning system erroneously detected an incoming missile from Cuba! It was not the robustness of our system, or even the

judgment of our politicians and military, that saved us then or during the rest of the Cold War. It was, as then-Defense Secretaryjudgment of our politicians and military, that saved us then or during the rest of the Cold War. It was, as then-Defense Secretary

Robert McNamara Robert McNamara would later emphasizewould later emphasize: “In the end, : “In the end, we lucked outwe lucked out. It was . It was luck luck that prevented nuclear war.”that prevented nuclear war.”

We don’t have to accept this as our fate, as yet another terrible aspect of the world we happen to live in. There are ways to makeWe don’t have to accept this as our fate, as yet another terrible aspect of the world we happen to live in. There are ways to make

the chance of war, by poor decision or malfunction, less likely. At one extreme, of course, we could find a way to dismantle thethe chance of war, by poor decision or malfunction, less likely. At one extreme, of course, we could find a way to dismantle the

global nuclear weapons system. This does not seem likely in the next year or so, especially given that the soon-to-be-releasedglobal nuclear weapons system. This does not seem likely in the next year or so, especially given that the soon-to-be-released

Nuclear Posture Review of the United States seems to put (if Nuclear Posture Review of the United States seems to put (if a leaked draft is an indicationa leaked draft is an indication) even more emphasis on the) even more emphasis on the

importance of nuclear weapons. And it seems unlikely that North Korea will be scared into giving up its nuclear arsenal in theimportance of nuclear weapons. And it seems unlikely that North Korea will be scared into giving up its nuclear arsenal in the

near term. No state that has ever given up nuclear arms it possessed did so out of fear; fear is what drives states to get, and tonear term. No state that has ever given up nuclear arms it possessed did so out of fear; fear is what drives states to get, and to

improve upon, their weapons, not to give them up.improve upon, their weapons, not to give them up.

Similarly, one could hope that the Hawaii incident will be a wake-up call for state and federal agencies who are meant toSimilarly, one could hope that the Hawaii incident will be a wake-up call for state and federal agencies who are meant to

communicate with the public on these matters to review their systems with closer scrutiny to the possibility of human error,communicate with the public on these matters to review their systems with closer scrutiny to the possibility of human error,

system malfunction or deliberate manipulation by hackers.system malfunction or deliberate manipulation by hackers.

But ultimately the short-term solution would be to decrease international tensions, to get us out of this war scare. Our leadersBut ultimately the short-term solution would be to decrease international tensions, to get us out of this war scare. Our leaders

and diplomats have the power to defuse this crisis, if they choose to use it. They probably can’t force North Korea toand diplomats have the power to defuse this crisis, if they choose to use it. They probably can’t force North Korea to

denuclearize. But they can send a strong, unambiguous signal: The United States does not seek war if it can at all be avoided,denuclearize. But they can send a strong, unambiguous signal: The United States does not seek war if it can at all be avoided,

and the United States would not attack North Korea unless it crossed a well-defined and credible red line (such as attacking ourand the United States would not attack North Korea unless it crossed a well-defined and credible red line (such as attacking our

bases or allies). If North Korea didn’t think we were itching to destroy it, it might be less likely to do something fatal.bases or allies). If North Korea didn’t think we were itching to destroy it, it might be less likely to do something fatal.

Because if our systems can fail, so can theirs. And consider this: What’s scarier than a false warning of a North Korean nuclearBecause if our systems can fail, so can theirs. And consider this: What’s scarier than a false warning of a North Korean nuclear

missile? A North Korean early warning system, all too fallible itself, ever searching for that incoming attack.missile? A North Korean early warning system, all too fallible itself, ever searching for that incoming attack.

Read more:Read more:

Presidents have too much power over U.S. nukes. Especially President Trump.Presidents have too much power over U.S. nukes. Especially President Trump.

No one can stop Trump from using nuclear weapons. That’s by design.No one can stop Trump from using nuclear weapons. That’s by design.

If Trump wants to use nuclear weapons, whether it’s ‘legal’ won’t matterIf Trump wants to use nuclear weapons, whether it’s ‘legal’ won’t matter

* 59 Comments

Alex Wellerstein is a historian of nuclear weapons at the Stevens Institute of Technology in Hoboken, N.J. He runs

the website Restricted Data: The Nuclear Secrecy Blog. - Follow @wellerstein

8/20/2020 China’s National-Security Law Reaches Into Harvard, Princeton Classrooms – WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-national-security-law-reaches-into-harvard-princeton-classrooms-11597829402 1/6

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers visit https://www.djreprints.com.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-national-security-law-reaches-into-harvard-princeton-classrooms-11597829402

WSJ NEWS EXCLUSIVE | BUSINESS

China’s National-Security Law Reaches Into Harvard, Princeton Classrooms Professors at elite U.S. universities turn to code names, warning labels to protect students

◆

Part of the challenge is the growing list of subjects Beijing considers o�-limits, said Kerry Ratigan, an assistant professor of political science at Amherst College. PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES�ISTOCK

By Aug. 19, 2020 5�30 am ET

Lucy Craymer

Listen to this article 6 Minutes

The effect of the new national-security law that China imposed on Hong Kong is extending far beyond the territory to American college campuses.

Classes at some elite universities will carry a warning label this fall: This course may cover material considered politically sensitive by China. And schools are weighing measures to try to shield students and faculty from prosecution by Chinese authorities.

At Princeton University, students in a Chinese politics class will use codes instead of names on their work to protect their identities. At Amherst College a professor is

8/20/2020 China’s National-Security Law Reaches Into Harvard, Princeton Classrooms – WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-national-security-law-reaches-into-harvard-princeton-classrooms-11597829402 2/6

considering anonymous online chats so students can speak freely. And Harvard Business School may excuse students from discussing politically sensitive topics if they are worried about the risks.

The issue has become particularly pressing because at least the first semester at many universities will be taught online, meaning some students from China and Hong Kong will connect with their U.S. classmates via video links. Some academics fear the classes could be recorded and ultimately end up in the hands of Chinese authorities.

Almost 370,000 Chinese students and roughly 7,000 from Hong Kong enrolled at U.S. universities in the 2018-19 school year, and academics in the U.S. say they often opt to take classes on Chinese law, culture and politics because they want to understand more about their country and how the world views it.

“We cannot self-censor,” said Rory Truex, an assistant professor who teaches Chinese politics at Princeton. “If we, as a Chinese teaching community, out of fear stop teaching things like Tiananmen or Xinjiang or whatever sensitive topic the Chinese government doesn’t want us talking about, if we cave, then we’ve lost.”

Distance Learning Students from China and Hong Kong make up roughly a third of all foreign students in the U.S.

International students in the U.S.

Source: Institute of International Education and Open Doors

Note: Years show beginning of the academic year.

.million

Other China and Hong Kong

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8/20/2020 China’s National-Security Law Reaches Into Harvard, Princeton Classrooms – WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-national-security-law-reaches-into-harvard-princeton-classrooms-11597829402 3/6

His course will now come with a warning that some of the material might be sensitive and of concern to China’s government, and he said he was introducing blind grading. Students will hand in work bearing a code rather than their name, to prevent any student from being linked to particular views or arguments.

A spokesman for Princeton declined to comment.

Meg Rithmire, who teaches political science at Harvard Business School, plans similar measures on a compulsory first-year course for roughly 800 students seeking a master’s degree in business administration. One of the case studies discussed requires students to read diaries from Uighur Muslims held in camps in China’s Xinjiang region—where Beijing is accused of large-scale human-rights abuses—and also covers Hong Kong, Taiwan and the legitimacy of the Communist party.

“There is no way that I can say to my students, ‘You can say whatever you want on the phone call and you are totally free and safe here,’” she said. “It’s more about harm mitigation.”

Harvard Business School is looking to introduce an amnesty for students—including Americans—worried about the implications of openly discussing sensitive topics, Prof. Rithmire said. Class participation is normally an element of students’ grades, but if the amnesty is put in place they won’t be penalized for opting out. A Harvard Business School spokesman declined to comment.

‘We cannot self-censor,’ said Rory Truex, an assistant professor who teaches Chinese politics at Princeton University. PHOTO: DOMINICK REUTER�REUTERS

8/20/2020 China’s National-Security Law Reaches Into Harvard, Princeton Classrooms – WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-national-security-law-reaches-into-harvard-princeton-classrooms-11597829402 4/6

The new national-security law—which bars what it calls sedition, subversion, terrorism and colluding with foreign forces—allows China to pursue and prosecute people seen as violating it even outside Hong Kong. A naturalized American citizen from Hong Kong, Samuel Chu, reportedly was recently included on a list of fugitives being sought under the law after he lobbied the U.S. Congress to punish China for eroding Hong Kong’s autonomy.

“China has always been hostile to Western journalists and academics, and this amps it up,” said Dr. Truex.

Avery Goldstein, a professor in the political science department at the University of Pennsylvania, said as soon as students enroll for his course online he plans to send out the syllabus and flag that it may contain sensitive information. A security breach of his online classes could now compromise students’ safety, he said—or his own, if he were to travel to China.

“We have to leave it up to the students whether they enroll, because it is ultimately their lives that are going to be affected,” he said. “I will make it clear that there is nothing I can do to protect them.”

The University of Pennsylvania didn’t return requests for comment.

Concerns about China’s influence on academics around the world have grown over the past two decades, as some educational institutions set up campuses in China and many

‘There is no way that I can say to my students, “You can say whatever you want on the phone call and you are totally free and safe here,”’ said Meg Rithmire, who teaches political science at Harvard Business School. ‘It’s more about harm mitigation.’ PHOTO: CHARLES KRUPA�ASSOCIATED PRESS

8/20/2020 China’s National-Security Law Reaches Into Harvard, Princeton Classrooms – WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-national-security-law-reaches-into-harvard-princeton-classrooms-11597829402 5/6

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increasingly rely on fees paid by Chinese students, who account for more foreign students in the U.S. than any other country.

There are indications that Chinese students in the U.S. could fall afoul of Chinese laws. A University of Minnesota student was sentenced to six months’ imprisonment after returning home to the Chinese city of Wuhan last year. He was convicted of “provocation” for tweets he wrote while studying in the U.S. that allegedly mocked Chinese leaders.

With remote learning changing teaching methods, academics are discussing how to handle students living under other authoritarian regimes. China’s new law and the large number of Chinese students studying at U.S. colleges have made it a more urgent priority.

Part of the challenge is the growing list of subjects Beijing considers off-limits, said Kerry Ratigan, an assistant professor of political science at Amherst College. In the mid 2000s, she could openly discuss public policy with China-based academics, but that is now sensitive, she said.

“It’s a moving target,” said Dr. Ratigan, who fears increased risks for students who are Chinese citizens or have close family in China.

Amherst College declined to comment.

Along with providing warnings for students taking her classes she’s looking at ways to hold anonymous online chats so that students—her classes number about 20—could express opinions openly without fear of recrimination.

“It’s very difficult. In an ideal world we could have these more sensitive conversations in person,” she said.

Write to Lucy Craymer at [email protected]

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

How can the U.S. counter China’s threat to criminalize free speech around the globe? Join the conversation below.

8/20/2020 Coronavirus disrupts Chinese students’ plans for a U.S. education – Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/coronavirus-chinese-students-us/ 1/21

Education, interrupted The pandemic has forced Haila, Jingchu and many other

Chinese students to rethink dreams of a U.S. diploma.

(Yue Wu for The Washington Post)

“I could never have imagined any of this.”

Jingchu Lin

By

Aug. 14, 2020

Emily Rauhala

8/20/2020 Coronavirus disrupts Chinese students’ plans for a U.S. education – Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/coronavirus-chinese-students-us/ 2/21

Through days of schooling and nights of studying, the two Chinese students pictured the big moment: Telling their parents. Posting the news. Haila Amin off to the University of Virginia. Jingchu Lin en route to Yale.

It would be a personal triumph and a turning point. A chance to chart a new course in a new country. That was what they work

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